CAPS Think Point
Weekly Asia Pacific Monitor
24 April-28 March 2025
Weekly Asia Pacific Monitor is based on daily screening of 28
newspapers published from different countries of the region. The
document provides a brief summary of interaction among Asia
Pacific countries in security, economy and diplomacy sectors.
Consortium of Asia Pacific Studies (CAPS)
Australia
Trump cuts funding for seven Australian universities. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says Australia will continue to have a “constructive” relationship with America. The comments surfaced after Trump administration cut funding to seven key universities in Australia.
The U.S. plans to conduct a live shot with its Typhon missile system in Australia. The U.S. Army plans to conduct a live shot with its Typhon missile system in Australia this summer during the Talisman Sabre exercise, marking the first firing of the longrange strike weapon on foreign soil.
Brunei
China becomes Brunei’s second-largest source of foreign investment. In 2024, bilateral trade between Brunei Darussalam and China reached USD2.809 billion, with Brunei’s exports to China nearing USD2.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.8 per cent. China has become Brunei’s second-largest source of foreign investment and one of its top three trading partners, further strengthening the bonds of mutual interest.
Extended border operating hours with Malaysia for Eid. The operating hours at land border checkpoints between Malaysia and Brunei have been extended from 10pm to midnight starting March 25 until April 6, in anticipation of increased cross-border travel for the upcoming Hari Raya Aidilfitri celebration.
Indonesia
Indonesian denies approving voluntary migration program for Gazans. Indonesian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Rolliansyah Soemirat, clarified that no such discussions or agreements have been made with any party regarding the matter. “The Indonesian government has never discussed or received any information regarding the planned relocation of Gaza residents to Indonesia, as reported by some foreign media.”
President Macron to visit Indonesia in May 2025. Foreign Affairs Minister Sugiono and French Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs Jean-Noel Barrot confirmed that French President Emmanuel Macron will make a state visit to Indonesia in May 2025.
Indonesia joins BRICS-backed New Development Bank. Indonesia joins BRICS-backed New Development Bank The decision came after Prabowo held a meeting with New Development Bank (NDB) president Dilma Vanam Rousseff at the State Palace in Jakarta.
No request for Indonesian peacekeepers on Russia-Ukraine border. Indonesia has not received any official request for stationing its peacekeeping troops along the Russia-Ukraine border under the auspices of the United Nations, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA) has clarified.
Indonesian Fulbright students seek clarity after Trump’s funding freeze. Hundreds of Indonesian students in the United States are stuck in limbo after the US State Department announced in early March the suspension of all funding for exchange and study abroad programs, including Fulbright scholarships.
Indonesia, China to strengthen AI, smart city cooperation. Both sides discussed Indonesia’s digital transformation and opening up opportunities for AI use in agricultural and smart city development. According to the minister, the city of Nanning is known to have reliable experience in building a smart city.
Chinese businesses to invest in Central Java, says Chinese ambassador to Indonesia. More Chinese businesses will invest in Indonesia, especially Central Java province, with the designation of Batang Industropolis as a special economic zone.
Malaysia
MAHB engaging with Australian Airlines to establish direct flights to Malaysia. Malaysia Airports Holdings Bhd (MAHB) is actively engaging with three Australian airlines, namely Qantas, Jetstar and Virgin Australia, to establish direct flights to Malaysia.
Boeing to increase Malaysian workforce as part of deal with MAG. Boeing Global president Brendan Nelson has announced that the company will increase its Malaysian workforce by 20% over the next two years, reinforcing its commitment to the country’s aerospace industry. While, MAG announced the acquisition of 30 new aircraft directly from Boeing as part of its fleet modernisation strategy.
Muara Tebas identified as site for new naval headquarters. Malaysia has identified Muara Tebas as the site for the new Royal Malaysian Navy’s (TLDM) Naval Region Headquarters. Armed Forces chief Jen Datuk Mohd Nizam Jaffar said that after considering various factors, including -facilities and maintenance costs, Muara Tebas was found to be more suitable as the new TLDM base than the initial location in Bintulu.
Russia
Russian firms lure South Asian migrants amid historic labor shortage. As Russia faces historic labor shortages, firms like Ozon are looking further afield for new sources of workers. The company is ready to provide workers with accommodation, health insurance, work attire, food and Russian classes to pass the test for obtaining a Russian work permit — all free of charge.
Foreigners do not want to become citizens of the Russian Federation, and Russia does not expect them. In 2024, 209,000 “new Russians” received passports, a record low over the past five years. However, the number of foreigners expelled from Russia was record high. Experts interviewed by Kommersant believe that the statistics were also influenced by the SVO, the terrorist attack in Crocus, and the lack of “targeted work” to repatriate compatriots.
Chinese tires Import volume to Russia fell at the beginning of the year. Imports of car tires from China, which were actively growing in 2024, have begun to decline. The market is oversaturated, experts believe, especially with Chinese brands. Imports are complicated by the high key rate of the Bank of Russia and logistical problems. Russian manufacturers, in turn, are consistently increasing production.
Russian Coal Loses Asia-Marine fuel exports to the region are declining. Shipments of thermal coal from Russia to China by sea over the first two decades of March fell by 49% year-on-year. Shipments to other Asian countries also fell, but not as significantly. After sanctions, China became the largest market for Russian thermal coal, but is now actively supporting its own production. Other countries in the region will not be able to replace Chinese consumption volumes.
India’s crude imports from Russia surge. Indian imports of Russian crude oil have rebounded significantly in March, with lower prices making it more economical for refiners. The cheaper prices have also led to an increase in the availability of non-sanctioned tankers, making it easier for Indian companies to transport oil. As a result, India’s Russian oil imports have rebounded in March after a decline in previous months.
Gazprom Plans Major Corporate Overhaul Amid Financial Crisis – FT. Once Russia’s most profitable company, Gazprom posted a net loss of around $7 billion in 2023 — its first since 1999 — after Europe slashed its Russian gas purchases by more than 90% amid the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Looking ahead, Gazprom could lose 15 trillion rubles (almost $179 billion) between 2025 and 2034, according to FT. The company also expects its gas exports to Europe and Turkey.
North Korea Sent More Troops and Weapons to Russia, South Korea’s Military. North Korea has deployed an additional 3,000 troops to Russia this year and continues to supply missiles, artillery and ammunition to support the Kremlin’s war against Ukraine, South Korea’s military said. Russia and North Korea have strengthened ties since Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Neither Moscow nor Pyongyang has confirmed the troop deployments.
India ‘immensely values’ ties with Russia – Indian FM S. Jaishankar. Jaishankar noted that the two nations had demonstrated an exceptional ability to adapt and find new opportunities for mutual benefit, contributing to regional and global stability, he told the conference, which was organized by the Russian International Affairs Council.
China
China conducted an unprecedented live-fire drill near Australia, prompting flight diversions and criticism over notification standards. Australia’s air force monitored the exercise, while opposition leaders attacked the government’s response ahead of elections.
A U.S. intelligence report labels China as the top military and cyber threat, citing advancements in AI, hypersonic weapons, and space capabilities. It highlights China’s growing pressure on Taiwan and economic tensions with the U.S., including disputes over fentanyl. China denies the claims, accusing the U.S. of hypocrisy and military hegemony.
The Trump administration is tightening restrictions on Chinese-linked companies in the U.S. defense sector. Concerns persist over American firms’ reliance on Chinese suppliers for critical materials, which poses significant security risks. Proposed measures, including supply chain reforms and stricter regulations on corporate ties to China, aim to reduce dependence and safeguard national security.
China, Iran, and Russia conducted the “Security Belt 2025” joint naval exercise near Iran’s Chabahar Port from March 9-13, focusing on counter-terrorism and counter-piracy operations. The drills aimed to enhance tactical coordination, joint operational capabilities, and military trust among the three nations. China reaffirmed its commitment to maritime security cooperation and regional stability.
Pakistani entities linked to China face US curbs The United States has added dozens of entities to a trade blacklist. Its commerce department said, in part to disrupt Beijing’s artificial intelligence and advanced computing capabilities. The action affects 80 entities from countries including China, Taiwan, Pakistan, the United Arab Emirates, Iran and South Africa, with the department citing their “activities contrary to US national security and foreign policy.”
Trump’s executive order allows tariffs on countries importing Venezuelan oil,putting China in a difficult position between its economic and diplomatic interests. China, Venezuela’s largest oil buyer, risks either losing a key ally or facing further U.S. tariffs. Analysts suggest the move may be a U.S. negotiation tactic in broader trade talks.
Europe to engage with China amidst American uncertainty. With Trump’s return reshaping global dynamics, European leaders are engaging Beijing with varied agendas, balancing trade concerns and geopolitical shifts. While some seek economic cooperation, Brussels remains wary, pressing China on trade policies and Russia ties amid growing tensions.
Beijing can capitalise on the uncertainty coming from Washington to woo Southeast Asia by showing “geopolitical magnanimity” on tough issues including the South China Sea, a Malaysian international affairs expert says.
Mohd Faiz Abdullah, chairman of the Institute of Strategic and International Studies Malaysia, a think tank that advises the Malaysian government, also said that if Southeast Asia were confronted withv“corrosive” trade policies from the United States, the region may have no choice but to turn to China more often.
India
Japan reaffirmed its commitment to strengthening security ties with India and South Korea amid discussions on expanding the U.S.-backed “Squad” alliance to counter China’s influence. While Japan supports building multi-layered regional alliances, it has not confirmed specific expansion plans.
ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems is collaborating with India on the $9 billion Project 76 to develop next-generation submarines, thereby enhancing India’s indigenous defense manufacturing capabilities. The partnership aims for comprehensive technology transfer, addressing past challenges in submarine projects and equipping the Indian Navy with advanced capabilities, such as air-independent propulsion and stealth.
New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon launched a five-day diplomatic tour After a decade-long impasse, New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon launched a five-day diplomatic tour in Delhi. The two nations have agreed to commence the first round of negotiations next month, with Luxon describing the restart as a “major breakthrough” that could potentially double New Zealand’s exports within a decade.
The US tarrif affect Indian oil imports to Venezuela. The US has announced a 25% tariff on Venezuelan oil imports, affecting India’s crude import costs and strategy, and potentially driving up global oil prices. India may shift sourcing while discussing trade and investment with a visiting US delegation. India and China explore ways to rebuild ties and agreed to initiate efforts to promote people-to-people exchanges, including arrangements for resumption of direct flights and resuming Kailash Manasarovar Yatra this year.
China-Pakistan
Pak-China talks on security: Pakistan and China are in ongoing talks to enhance security for Chinese nationals amid militant threats. Islamabad reassures Beijing of its commitment, while China pushes for its own security presence.
Pakistan’s sesame seed exports to China surged by 179.88% in early 2025, reaching 22,740 metric tons worth $28.27 million. The growth is driven by improved quality, trade facilitation under CPEC, and rising Chinese demand for high-quality agricultural products.
Pakistan repays loan to Chinese bank: Pakistan has repaid a $1 billion loan to ICBC in two installments in March 2025, temporarily lowering foreign exchange reserves to $10.6 billion. The government is seeking to refinance a $300 million tranche due next month and faces $2.7 billion in Chinese loan maturities by June.
Japan
China Coast Guard vessels intrude into Japanese territorial waters off Senkaku Islands for 92 hours, the longest period since Japan nationalized the islands. China Coast Guard vessels intruded into Japanese territorial waters off the Senkaku Islands in Okinawa Prefecture, following Japanese fishing boats, beginning just before 2 a.m. on the 21st of this month and lasting until 10 p.m. on the 24th, totaling 92 hours and 8 minutes. The intrusion, the longest since the Japanese government nationalized the islands in 2012, involved initially two, and then four, Chinese vessels.
Japan opens Joint Operations Command for the 3 SDF branches. The Defense Ministry established the Joint Operations Command (JOC) on March 24 in Ichigaya district, Shinjuku Ward, Tokyo, to unify command over the Self-Defense Forces (SDF). This was done to counter military attacks and coordinate with the U.S. military during complex and emergency situations, including natural disasters and potential counterattacks, as outlined in security documents approved in 2022.
Government draws up evacuation plan for Okinawa’s remote islands with “Taiwan emergency” in mind. The Japanese government created an evacuation plan for ~120,000 residents and tourists of Okinawa’s remote islands (Sakishima Islands), projecting a “Taiwan emergency”. Evacuation will take place over six days, coordinated by the Self-Defense Forces and Japan Coast Guard. People will be transported to Fukuoka/Kagoshima Airports, then to 32 cities/towns in Kyushu/Yamaguchi prefectures.
Chinese Foreign Minister: “Treated water release coming soon, analysis results may lead to resumption of imports”. China will soon announce the results of its second investigation into the Fukushima water release, which was conducted under the IAEA framework following an investigation in February. This announcement is crucial for the potential resumption of Japanese seafood imports. Progress hinges on the investigation finding no problems.
Advanced semiconductor company Rapidus signs collaboration agreement with Singapore semiconductor design company. Rapidus, a Japanese semiconductor company, will collaborate with Singaporean semiconductor design firm QuEST Global to receive technical support and acquire new clients, particularly in fields like space and medicine.
Honda’s EV-specific factory in Guangzhou, China, is now fully operational. Honda and Guangzhou Automobile began full operations on the 26th at their new dedicated EV factory in Guangzhou, China. This initiative aims to strengthen Honda’s position in China’s rapidly accelerating EV market, where Japanese automakers face challenges, supporting Honda’s goal of selling only EVs there by 2035. Toyota also plans similar EV factory expansions.
Japan putting ‘all options on table’ in dealing with US auto tariffs, PM Ishiba says. Tokyo will put “all options on the table” after U.S. President Donald Trump announced 25% tariffs on imported cars and light trucks, effective next week. The move raises concerns in Japan due to the heavy reliance on auto exports to the U.S. (28.3% of total exports in 2024), with analysts predicting a significant negative impact on Japan’s GDP.
Japan, China, South Korea FMs agree on future-oriented cooperation. The foreign ministers of Japan, China, and South Korea met in Tokyo to promote futureoriented cooperation on shared issues and to accelerate arrangements for a trilateral summit in Japan as early as possible. They agreed to promote mutual understanding, strengthen economic and disaster prevention cooperation, address declining birthrates and aging populations.
China hosts a Japan-China exchange event at a park famous for its cherry blossoms. A Japan-China exchange event occurred on the 26th at Gentouzhu Park in Wuxi, China, attended by Japanese volunteers, Ambassador Kanasugi Kenji, and Chinese participants. They continued a 37-year tradition started by former soldier Hasegawa Kiyomi to promote friendship.
Cross-party group of lawmakers from Japan, the US and Taiwan confirms arrangements to hold face-to-face “strategic dialogue”. A bipartisan group of Japanese lawmakers, the Japan-China Parliamentary League, met in the Diet on the 26th, receiving a video message from Taiwanese President Lai Chingte. They adopted an action policy for fiscal year 2025 to work with Taiwan against unilateral changes to the status quo by force, particularly concerning China’s actions and a potential “Taiwan emergency.”
Japan to donate medical equipment to Ukrainian pediatric hospital. Following severe damage from a Russian missile attack last July, Japan is donating medical equipment to Okhmadit Hospital in Kyiv, Ukraine.
Ishiba to visit Philippines to strengthen ‘quasi-alliance’. Japanese Prime Minister is arranging a visit to the Philippines during the Golden Week holidays (late April/early May). The visit aims to reinforce thE security cooperation (like OSA) between the two nations, particularly considering China’s actions.
South Korea
Seoul investigating two North Koreans found on boat in Yellow Sea. South Korea is investigating two North Koreans reportedly found aboard a small wooden boat that drifted into ROK waters in the Yellow Sea this month. South Korea’s unification ministry stated later that week it will seek the prompt repatriation of two North Koreans found adrift in a wooden boat south of the Northern Limit Line (NLL).
S. Korea installs floating structure to counter China’s steel structure in overlapping maritime zone. South Korea installed a floating structure in the Yellow Sea’s overlapping waters withChina as a countermeasure to China’s recent steel structure installations. The actionfollows a standoff last month when China blocked Seoul’s investigation of Beijing’s steelstructure construction in the Provisional Maritime Zone (PMZ), where only fishing andjoint management of marine resources are allowed.
Seoul official says no timeframe set for resumption of DeepSeek service. South Korea’s Personal Information Protection Commission (PIPC) suspended newdownloads of China’s DeepSeek AI app due to data management concerns. DeepSeekhas assigned a representative in South Korea and expressed commitment to abiding bylocal laws.
Marine chiefs of S. Korea, U.S. discuss cooperation, training. South Korean Marine Commandant Lt. Gen. Ju Il-suk and U.S. Marine CommandantGen. Eric Smith met at the South’s Marine HQ in Hwaseong. They discussedstrengthening military cooperation by enhancing combined training in South Korea,expanding participation in overseas drills, and increasing collaboration in personnelexchange, electronic warfare, and ISR assets.
Industry ministers of S. Korea, China, Japan to hold 1st trilateral meeting in 5 yrs next week, the first such meeting since December 2019. Announced by Seoul’s industryministry, the ministers plan to discuss a potential trilateral free trade agreement,improvements to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), andsupply chain cooperation.
U.S. 25 pct tariffs on imported cars to weigh heavily on S. Korean carmakers. South Korean carmakers like Hyundai, Kia, and GM Korea who heavily rely on the U.S.market ($34.7 billion exported last year). Analysts predict significant economic damage,including an estimated 18.59% drop in exports and a GDP decrease.
Customs agency launches special unit to ‘preemptively’ respond to U.S. tariff impact. Three teams will crack down on trade violations exploiting uncertainties, andassess/mitigate risks. This is a preemptive measure while hoping for South Korea’sexclusion from the tariffs through government negotiations.
Seoul envoy at the UN calls on N. Korea to stop sacrificing its people to sustain regime in return for Russia’s support. He accused Pyongyang of deceiving its soldiers and sacrificing its people for Moscow’s military and economic support, causing suffering totroops and families.
S. Korea-U.S. alliance is in ‘quiet crisis’: U.S. expert. Victor Cha, Korea Chair at CSIS, stated Thursday the U.S.-South Korea alliance faces a”quiet crisis,” citing a lack of high-level contact, Seoul’s recent DOE list placement,potential U.S. tariffs, and Defense Secretary Hegseth skipping South Korea on his IndoPacific trip.
North Korea
North Korea condemns Japan’s reported plans for long-range missile units North Korea has condemned Japan’s reported plans to deploy long-range missile units capable of striking the DPRK, calling the move a “dangerous provocation” despite Tokyo’s insistence that it is still evaluating deployment options.
N. Korea’s Kim oversees test of AI-powered ‘suicide attack drones’ North Korean leader Kim Jong-un supervised performance tests of AI-equipped “suicide attack” and strategic reconnaissance drones. He stressed developing AI and unmanned systems as a top, long-term state priority in line with modern warfare trends.
North Korea sees bump in trade with China in first two months of year North Korea’s trade with China jumped in the first two months of the year, according to official data, driven by both strong imports and one of its best months for exports since 2018.
North Korea to welcome foreign firms for spring trade fair, first since 2019 The 23rd Pyongyang International trade fair is scheduled to take place between 12 to 16 May at Youth Central Hall and Okryu Exhibition Hall.
Russia agrees to NK doctors’ internships in Moscow hospitals, pharmaceuticals modernization Russia agreed to allow internships in cardiology, oncology, and other fields, and to assist in producing modern antibiotics. They will create new medical institutions.
N. Korea halts foreign tourism abruptly amid concerns over influencers North Korea halted foreign tourism abruptly in March 2025, just weeks after reopening in February due to concerns over unfiltered content shared by travel influencers. The decision was potentially prompted by negative portrayals of the regime and society, particularly after travel influencers (ojwojtek, Tamil Trekker) shared their experiences.
Russian Foreign Ministry: “Preparations are underway for North Korean leader Kim’s visit to Russia” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Rudenko announced on the 27th that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un will visit Russia this year, with preparations underway following President Putin’s invitation last June in Pyongyang.
Putin cites N. Korea among Russia’s potential partners to settle Ukraine war: report Russian President Vladimir Putin listed North Korea among potential partners (alongside BRICS nations) to cooperate with in settling the Ukraine war. Putin reportedly welcomed any efforts to resolve the situation.
Vietnam
Singaporean PM arrives in Hanoi, beginning official visit to Vietnam. The official visit to Vietnam by PM Wong takes place at a time when the two countries are working to realize cooperation potential within the framework of their Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.
Singapore seek cooperation chances in semiconductor industry. A seminar in Singapore highlighted Việt Nam’s potential and strategic vision for semiconductor industry development, attracting key global investors and industry leaders.
Construction of the Vietnam-Singapore Industrial Park (VSIP) Thai Binh officially began on Wednesday with a groundbreaking ceremony in northern Vietnam’s Thai Binh Province, marking it as the 20th VSIP project in the country.
Singapore
Singapore, India sign Letter of Intent (LOI) over cooperation in maritime digitalisation, decarbonisation. Under the LOl, both sides will collaborate on maritime digitalisation and decarbonisation projects, including identifying relevant stakeholders who could contribute to the effort, and work towards formalising the partnership through a memorandum of understanding on a Singapore-India Green and Digital Shipping Corridor (GDSC).39 Singapore’s Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat met China’s Vice-President Han Zheng in Beijing on March 26, as they reflected on the momentum of bilateral projects in the 35th year since diplomatic ties were established.
Philippines
The Philippines has sealed five financing agreements with Japan. worth P65.4 billion to fund big-ticket infrastructure projects, as well as climate and universal health-care programs of the government.
A Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force frigate made its first port call at a strategic. Philippine naval base near the South China Sea, underscoring the increasing defense ties between Manila and Tokyo amid lingering concerns over Beijing’s assertiveness in the disputed waters.
US-made Typhon missile system to be deployed in Philippines. A potential second deployment of the US-made Typhon missile system in the Philippines has been hailed as a strong signal of Washington’s commitment to the defence of its longtime Southeast Asian ally even as China continues to perceive its presence as a threat to regional security.
The Philippine Army and US Army launched Sanib 2025 officially, a joint military exercise combining Salaknib and Balikatan, at Fort Magsaysay in Palayan City, Nueva Ecija.
