CAPS Think Point
No. 06/2025 dated 24 February 2025
India-Afghanistan Strategic Partnership: Options for China and Pakistan
Umair Pervez Khan & Dr. Gulshan Rafiq
In January 2025, India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri met with Afghanistan’s acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi in Dubai. This high-level engagement, the most significant since the Taliban’s ascent in 2021, underscored India’s intent to deepen ties with Afghanistan. Discussions centered on bolstering bilateral relations, gaining access to central Asia and enhancing trade via Iran’s Chabahar Port, a strategic alternative to Pakistani routes. The Taliban acknowledged India as a “significant regional partner,” reflecting a mutual interest in economic collaboration.
India’s policy of engaging with Afghanistan is not only out of its desperation as it has lost ample influence in other South Asian nations in few years including Nepal, Bhutan, Maldives and lastly Bangladesh but also to counter growing Chinese influence in the region. Moreover, India’s growing presence in Afghanistan is a matter of concern for Pakistan but also poses a threat to Chinese interests in the region. If unchecked, this could have serious repercussions for Chinese personnel and investments. In this context, the recent killing of a Chinese worker in Afghanistan also underscored the gravity of the situation.
It is worth mentioning that India has been investing heavily in Afghanistan for the past two decades, building substantial goodwill not only among the non-Pashtun population but also with Pashtun locals. Over the years, India has provided approximately 30,000 scholarships to Afghan students and invested in Afghanistan under the guise of development projects. Notably, India has also allowed Afghan students to enroll in online undergraduate and postgraduate courses from Indian universities for the academic year 2024/25. Collectively, according to an estimate, India has invested more than $3bn in over 500 projects across Afghanistan, including roads, power lines, dams, hospitals and not to forget the Afghan Parliament’s building.
Capitalizing on strained relations between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban, as Pakistan blames Afghan Taliban of providing safe havens to the outlawed Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), India is now successfully engaging with the interim government in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s recent measures, including the repatriation of Afghan refugees and cross-border strikes targeting TTP militants seeking refuge in Afghanistan, have further exacerbated the tensions. The Afghan Taliban’s unwillingness to withdraw support for the TTP remains a persistent source of friction between the two neighbuors. Consequently, Pakistan now has limited options to address the evolving situation.
What China and Pakistan Should Do
India’s growing engagement with Afghanistan is not only reshaping the geo-politics of South Asia, but also creating new challenges and opportunities for regional players like China and Pakistan. With the Afghan interim government poised to send diplomats to India following talks in Qatar, the evolving partnership between New Delhi and Kabul signaled a shift that could alter the regional power dynamics. Moreover, India’s sustained investments in Afghanistan, coupled with its outreach to the Taliban amidst Pakistan’s strained relations with the group, highlights the urgency for China and Pakistan to recalibrate their approach. As India seeks to expand its influence, both countries must adopt a proactive strategy to safeguard their interests, address security concerns, and foster regional stability.
For China, these developments present both challenges and opportunities. India is keen to regain the influence in Afghanistan to counter China’s stepped-up role in it. China has substantial investments in Afghanistan, particularly in mining and infrastructure sectors. The strengthening
of India-Afghanistan ties could influence China’s strategic interests, especially concerning the Belt and Road Initiative and regional security. Moreover, the recent targeting of Chinese nationals in Afghanistan underscores the precarious security environment. Collaborative efforts with Pakistan to engage diplomatically with Afghanistan’s interim government are imperative to safeguard mutual interests and counterbalance India’s growing influence in the region.
To counterbalance India’s increasing influence, China and Pakistan must adopt a coordinated and constructive diplomatic approach toward the interim Afghan government. Both countries should highlight the stance of the newly elected US President, Donald Trump, regarding the Doha Accord, using it as a basis to garner international support on Afghan matters.
Additionally, Pakistan’s ongoing policy of deporting Afghan refugees places considerable
pressure on Afghanistan and should be leveraged strategically to influence the Afghan Taliban.
With plans to deport half a million refugees in the first half of 2025, this measure can be used to
push Afghanistan toward addressing Pakistan’s security concerns.
China and Pakistan should also collaborate with friendly countries such as Türkiye to exert diplomatic pressure on Afghanistan, emphasizing the need to prevent its territory from being used for terrorism. Given Türkiye’s long-standing struggle with terrorism, aligning efforts on this front could yield mutual benefits.
Lastly, China and Pakistan must consider initiating joint intelligence-based operations within Afghanistan to eliminate terrorist elements threatening regional stability. Such coordinated actions would not only enhance regional security but also safeguard the interests of both nations in Afghanistan’s evolving geopolitical landscape.
The article was first published in South Asia Strategic Research Center
Umair Pervez Khan is general secretary of the Consortium for Asia Pacific Studies in Pakistan and is pursuing his PhD in international relations from Selcuk University, Turkey. Dr Gulshan Rafiq is chief organizer at the Consortium for Asia Pacific Studies in Pakistan. She also serves as an assistant professor at National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST).
