CapsPak

CAPS Think Point

No. 06/2025 dated 26 February 2025

Opinion | Indo-Pacific realities mean Pakistan-China alliance can only deepen

Given the India-US bromance, Pakistan and China have little choice. Expect Afghanistan to remain a focus amid efforts to counter US-led narratives

The Pakistan-China relationship has historically been central to South Asian geopolitics. Over time, this bond has evolved from a security-centric alliance into a partnership encompassing infrastructure and technology.

The two countries align on global forums such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation while managing geopolitical challenges, particularly Afghanistan’s stability, and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) remains the backbone of their economic engagement.

Despite deep ties, however, persistent challenges remain, including attacks on Chinese personnel. While China remains committed to the CPEC, security risks have led to reassessments and slowed new investments. Regional instability also complicates bilateral cooperation, especially as Afghanistan has become a source of unrest since the Taliban takeover.

India’s deepening partnerships with the United States, Japan and Australia under the US-led Indo-Pacific strategy have heightened regional competition, compelling Pakistan to manage its diplomatic positioning while maintaining strong ties with China.

In response to these challenges, President Asif Ali Zardari sought to reaffirm Pakistan’s strategic partnership with China during his recent visit. The visit aimed to counter perceptions of Pakistan’s tilt towards the US, reassuring China of its foremost strategic alliance. The visit helped restore trust and reinforced the long-standing bilateral friendship.

During discussions, China raised concerns about regional security, particularly Afghanistan. The Pakistani delegation is almost certain to have cited the infiltration of Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants in conveying its perspective. Since the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan, terrorist activities in Pakistan have surged by 73 per cent, according to a 2023 study, primarily in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.

This escalation suggests Taliban support for the TTP. The Chinese leadership not only reaffirmed its support for Pakistan’s counterterrorism efforts but also encouraged Pakistan to engage diplomatically with Afghanistan to address security concerns.

Amid these developments, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the US and Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy underscored shifting regional dynamics. The visit deepened India-US strategic cooperation, particularly in defence, trade and technology, reinforcing India’s role in the Indo-Pacific.

Highlighting this partnership, US President Donald Trump proposed increasing military sales to India, which would include advanced F-35 jets. These converging strategic interests between Washington and New Delhi reflect efforts to counterbalance China’s regional influence.

Amid these security shifts, Trump’s administration has approved the extradition of Tahawwur Rana, a suspect in the 2008 Mumbai terrorist attack who was convicted in the US in 2013 for plotting to behead staff of a Danish newspaper. The US sees it as a counterterrorism measure but Pakistan may view this as diplomatic pressure, exacerbating the trust deficit. It could push Pakistan even closer to China, reinforcing their strategic partnership.

Adding to tensions, Trump’s statement on India-US cooperation to counter radical Islamic terrorism reinforced a biased narrative, overlooking extremism across all identities and the persecution of minorities in India. His remarks were ironic given Modi’s past US entry ban over his role in the 2002 Gujarat riots, where hundreds of Muslims were estimated to have been killed.

For Pakistan, these geopolitical shifts present both challenges and opportunities. The strengthening India-US partnership increases strategic pressure on Islamabad but also compels Pakistan to reaffirm ties with Beijing. Pakistan has emphasised the CPEC’s importance and pledged enhanced security measures for Chinese projects and personnel. Furthermore, Zardari’s outreach to Beijing counters narratives suggesting Pakistan’s growing engagement with the US.

Islamabad also aims to counter India’s regional influence by deepening ties with Bangladesh, the Maldives and Nepal.

Looking ahead, Pakistan and China are also expected to expand collaboration beyond economic and security domains into fields like technology, artificial intelligence and renewable energy. While the CPEC remains central to their engagement, new dimensions such as financial integration, digital connectivity and industrial cooperation could gain prominence. But their development will depend on Pakistan’s ability to address security concerns and improve its investment climate.

Both nations may also enhance regional integration through frameworks like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, leveraging economic diplomacy to counterbalance Western pressure

India is closely watching these developments. It is already wary of Pakistan drawing closer to Bangladesh following the ousting of Bangladesh’s pro-India leader Sheikh Hasina Wajid. The new Dhaka administration is indeed resetting ties with Islamabad. Defence cooperation is increasing, with Pakistan training the Bangladeshi army, and Bangladesh taking part in the Aman naval exercises hosted by Pakistan earlier this month, for the first time in over a decade. Consequently, India fears the impact of these developments on insurgencies in its northeastern states.

Furthermore, China’s growing influence in Afghanistan, the Maldives, Sri Lanka and Nepal has negatively affected India’s regional engagement, prompting policymakers in Delhi to reassess their strategic calculations.

Given these realities, Pakistan and China have little choice but to strengthen their alliance, though progress in addressing current challenges has been slow, with Pakistan often making commitments that are difficult to implement.

Afghanistan will remain a focal point, with both countries aiming to stabilise the situation. Additionally, with India aligning closely with the US and its Indo-Pacific allies, Pakistan and China may strengthen ties with Russia, Iran and other regional players to to counterbalance Western-led narratives.

It’s clear Islamabad should shift its foreign policy focus eastward. While Pakistan should maintain economic engagement with the West, it must prioritise strategic cooperation with China. To this end, it must take concrete steps to address Chinese concerns, primarily by ensuring foolproof security for Chinese nationals and investments

Gulshan Rafiq and Umair Pervez Khan are affiliated as a Researcher with the Consortium for Asia Pacific Studies (CAPS), Pakistan.